The Future of Solar Energy is a look at only the two most recognized categories of technology to convert sunlight into electric power photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP), often referred to as solar thermal) — both in their current and possible future configurations. Since energy supply facilities usually last for a long time, technology in these categories will be the dominant source of solar power from now until 2050, and we don’t endeavor to explore the Future beyond 2050. Contrary to earlier Future of studies, we don’t offer any forecasts for two reasons. First, the expansion of the solar industry to a massive extent from its size could result in changes that we don’t pretend to be able to predict in the present. We also recognize that the Future of solar development will be heavily dependent on uncertain future economic conditions and policies of the public, which include but are not just measures to mitigate global climate changes.
Like previous studies, the main objective is to provide information to decision-makers of the developed world, particularly those in the United States. We are focusing on grid-connected solar-powered generators that can replace traditional energy sources. With more than a billion people worldwide without access to a reliable electrical grid, the expense of small-scale PV power generation is often offset by the enormous importance of having electricity to light and charge the radio and mobile phone batteries. In particular emerging nations, it might be beneficial to use solar energy to decrease dependence on oil imports, especially if the oil needs to be transported by trucks to generators located in remote locations. A related working paper examines these two critical roles for solar power in developing countries.